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Matt Cutchey v Nick Cartwright (Tue 16 Nov 2010)

Match won by Matt Cutchey. Result: 15-9,15-6,15-13.

Starting level for Matt Cutchey: 2,198, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Nick Cartwright: 1,386, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Matt Cutchey to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Nick Cartwright.

Matt Cutchey won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Cutchey played 61% better than Nick Cartwright in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Cutchey actually played at a level of 2,213 and Nick Cartwright at a level of 1,377. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Cutchey changes to +0.5% and Nick Cartwright changes to -0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Cutchey becomes +0.4% and for Nick Cartwright becomes -0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Matt Cutchey is 0% and for Nick Cartwright is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Cutchey: 74%, Nick Cartwright: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Cutchey: 73%, Nick Cartwright: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Cutchey: 2,201, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Nick Cartwright: 1,380, level confidence: 86%.