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Roger Woodfield v Martin Miller (Tue 14 May 2013)

Match won by Roger Woodfield. Result: 15-6,15-6,14-16,15-5.

Starting level for Roger Woodfield: 1,129, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Martin Miller: 857, level confidence: 62%.
Roger Woodfield to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Martin Miller.

Roger Woodfield won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roger Woodfield played 43% better than Martin Miller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Roger Woodfield actually played at a level of 1,175 and Martin Miller at a level of 823. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 3.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roger Woodfield changes to +3.4% and Martin Miller changes to -3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roger Woodfield becomes +3.1% and for Martin Miller becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Roger Woodfield is +2% and for Martin Miller is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roger Woodfield: 80%, Martin Miller: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roger Woodfield: 77%, Martin Miller: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roger Woodfield: 1,150, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Martin Miller: 838, level confidence: 76%.