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Jack Fowler v Chris Lynam (Tue 16 Nov 2010)

Match won by Chris Lynam. Result: 15-7,7-15,9-15,8-15.

Starting level for Jack Fowler: 2,264, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Lynam: 2,297, level confidence: 62%.
Chris Lynam to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Jack Fowler.

Chris Lynam won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Lynam played 28% better than Jack Fowler in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Lynam actually played at a level of 2,578 and Jack Fowler at a level of 2,018. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Lynam changes to +12% and Jack Fowler changes to -8.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Lynam becomes +5.4% and for Jack Fowler becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Chris Lynam is +4.1% and for Jack Fowler is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Lynam: 79%, Jack Fowler: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Lynam: 70%, Jack Fowler: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Fowler: 2,215, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Chris Lynam: 2,387, level confidence: 70%.