SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Gus Lyseight v Alan Howell (Tue 16 Nov 2010)

Match won by Gus Lyseight. Result: 15-9,12-15,15-10,15-4.

Starting level for Gus Lyseight: 1,717, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alan Howell: 1,728, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Alan Howell to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Gus Lyseight.

Gus Lyseight won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gus Lyseight played 33% better than Alan Howell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gus Lyseight actually played at a level of 1,988 and Alan Howell at a level of 1,492. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gus Lyseight changes to +15% and Alan Howell changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gus Lyseight becomes +7% and for Alan Howell becomes -7.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Gus Lyseight is +5.2% and for Alan Howell is -5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gus Lyseight: 91%, Alan Howell: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gus Lyseight: 78%, Alan Howell: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gus Lyseight: 1,804, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Alan Howell: 1,643, level confidence: 76%.