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James Cooper v James Armstrong (Tue 16 Nov 2010)

Match won by James Cooper. Result: 15-10,15-12,15-9.

Starting level for James Cooper: 1,787, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Armstrong: 1,372, level confidence: 63%.
James Cooper to win as he is currently playing 30% better than James Armstrong.

James Cooper won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Cooper played 48% better than James Armstrong in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Cooper actually played at a level of 1,908 and James Armstrong at a level of 1,285. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 5.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Cooper changes to +5.2% and James Armstrong changes to -5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Cooper becomes +3.3% and for James Armstrong becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for James Cooper is +2.4% and for James Armstrong is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Cooper: 85%, James Armstrong: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Cooper: 79%, James Armstrong: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Cooper: 1,828, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for James Armstrong: 1,331, level confidence: 74%.