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John Chesters v Dan Collison (Wed 15 May 2013)

Match won by Dan Collison. Result: 8-15,15-17,23-21,5-15.

Starting level for John Chesters: 1,102, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dan Collison: 1,314, level confidence: 51%.
Dan Collison to win as he is currently playing 19% better than John Chesters.

Dan Collison won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Collison played 28% better than John Chesters in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan Collison actually played at a level of 1,360 and John Chesters at a level of 1,065. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Collison changes to +3.2% and John Chesters changes to -2.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Collison becomes +2.8% and for John Chesters becomes -2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Dan Collison is +1.8% and for John Chesters is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Collison: 72%, John Chesters: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Collison: 69%, John Chesters: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for John Chesters: 1,085, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Dan Collison: 1,336, level confidence: 69%.