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Las Fernando v Scott Handley (Thu 18 Nov 2010)

Retired pro result: Scott Handley[3707]. Match type: Hertfordshire League 2010/2011. Last pro match: 2009-04-02 19:30:00. Now: 2010-11-18 19:30:00. Days since: 595
Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 11-15,13-15,11-15.

Starting level for Las Fernando: 3,422, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 21,094, level confidence: 61%.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 516% better than Las Fernando.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 37% better than Las Fernando in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Scott Handley was taking it easy by anything up to 48%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,843 and 21,094 without affecting his level.

As Scott Handley has played below his allowed range at 4,770, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Scott Handley would normally have been playing at level 10,969 (based on typical behaviour), Las Fernando played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 53%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to -0.5% and Las Fernando changes to +19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes -0.5% and for Las Fernando becomes +6.7%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is 0% and for Las Fernando is +5.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 78%, Las Fernando: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 37%, Las Fernando: 33%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Las Fernando: 3,590, level confidence: 33%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 21,009, level confidence: 37%.