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Mark Dunn v Steve Leverington (Wed 15 May 2013)

Match won by Mark Dunn. Result: 15-9,15-7,15-3.

Starting level for Mark Dunn: 2,515, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Steve Leverington: 1,345, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Mark Dunn to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Steve Leverington.

Mark Dunn won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 137% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Dunn played 137% better than Steve Leverington in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Dunn actually played at a level of 2,830 and Steve Leverington at a level of 1,195. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9% and 9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Dunn changes to +9% and Steve Leverington changes to -7.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Dunn becomes +4.2% and for Steve Leverington becomes -4.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Mark Dunn is +2.7% and for Steve Leverington is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Dunn: 80%, Steve Leverington: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Dunn: 71%, Steve Leverington: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Dunn: 2,580, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Steve Leverington: 1,303, level confidence: 76%.