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Jill Gaskell v John Murphy (Thu 18 Nov 2010)

Match won by John Murphy. Result: 7-15,14-16,8-15.

Starting level for Jill Gaskell: 1,069, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for John Murphy: 1,227, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
John Murphy to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Jill Gaskell.

John Murphy won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Murphy played 57% better than Jill Gaskell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Murphy actually played at a level of 1,437 and Jill Gaskell at a level of 913. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Murphy changes to +12% and Jill Gaskell changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Murphy becomes +6.7% and for Jill Gaskell becomes -9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for John Murphy is +5% and for Jill Gaskell is -6.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jill Gaskell is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Murphy: 85%, Jill Gaskell: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Murphy: 73%, Jill Gaskell: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jill Gaskell: 1,034, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for John Murphy: 1,287, level confidence: 73%.