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Simon Taylor v Paul Starkey (Thu 18 Nov 2010)

Match won by Paul Starkey. Result: 10-15,6-15,15-12,8-15.

Starting level for Simon Taylor: 1,002, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Starkey: 1,148, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Paul Starkey to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Simon Taylor.

Paul Starkey won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Starkey played 32% better than Simon Taylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Starkey actually played at a level of 1,232 and Simon Taylor at a level of 934. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Starkey changes to +6.8% and Simon Taylor changes to -6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Starkey becomes +4.6% and for Simon Taylor becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Paul Starkey is +3.4% and for Simon Taylor is -3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Starkey: 86%, Simon Taylor: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Starkey: 80%, Simon Taylor: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Taylor: 965, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Paul Starkey: 1,186, level confidence: 80%.