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Paul Carter v Mike Lindores (Tue 21 May 2013)

Match won by Paul Carter. Result: 12-15,15-8,11-15,15-12,15-6.

Starting level for Paul Carter: 978, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike Lindores: 1,238, level confidence: 49%.
Mike Lindores to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Paul Carter.

Paul Carter won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Carter played 13% better than Mike Lindores in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Carter actually played at a level of 1,169 and Mike Lindores at a level of 1,036. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Carter changes to +12% and Mike Lindores changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Carter becomes +7.2% and for Mike Lindores becomes -9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Paul Carter is +4.7% and for Mike Lindores is -5.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Carter: 85%, Mike Lindores: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Carter: 71%, Mike Lindores: 59%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Carter: 1,022, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Mike Lindores: 1,202, level confidence: 59%.