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Jonathan Fuller v Matt Delaney (Thu 18 Nov 2010)

Match won by Jonathan Fuller. Result: 13-15,15-13,15-13,15-8.

Starting level for Jonathan Fuller: 2,987, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Matt Delaney: 2,031, level confidence: 21%.
Jonathan Fuller to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Matt Delaney.

Jonathan Fuller won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonathan Fuller played 23% better than Matt Delaney in this match.

As Jonathan Fuller has played below his allowed range at 2,594, his level reduction is 4% before damping. On the assumption that Jonathan Fuller would normally have been playing at level 2,855 (based on typical behaviour), Matt Delaney played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 5.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonathan Fuller changes to -1.1% and Matt Delaney changes to +5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonathan Fuller becomes -0.8% and for Matt Delaney becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Jonathan Fuller is -0.6% and for Matt Delaney is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonathan Fuller: 77%, Matt Delaney: 46%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonathan Fuller: 70%, Matt Delaney: 42%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jonathan Fuller: 2,966, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Matt Delaney: 2,078, level confidence: 42%.