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Alan Cook v Matt Inglis (Tue 21 May 2013)

Match won by Matt Inglis. Result: 4-15,15-13,19-17,6-15,9-15.

Starting level for Alan Cook: 1,775, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Matt Inglis: 1,776, level confidence: 58%.
Matt Inglis to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Alan Cook.

Matt Inglis won 60% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Inglis played 18% better than Alan Cook in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Inglis actually played at a level of 1,928 and Alan Cook at a level of 1,635. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Inglis changes to +8.5% and Alan Cook changes to -7.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Inglis becomes +4.6% and for Alan Cook becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Matt Inglis is +3% and for Alan Cook is -2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Inglis: 76%, Alan Cook: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Inglis: 70%, Alan Cook: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Cook: 1,726, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Matt Inglis: 1,826, level confidence: 70%.