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Geoff Taylor v Bruce St Leger (Thu 18 Nov 2010)

Match won by Bruce St Leger. Result: 15-4,12-15,15-13,12-15,10-15.

Starting level for Geoff Taylor: 3,431, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Bruce St Leger: 2,991, level confidence: 51%.
Geoff Taylor to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Bruce St Leger.

Bruce St Leger won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bruce St Leger played 7% better than Geoff Taylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bruce St Leger actually played at a level of 3,309 and Geoff Taylor at a level of 3,101. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bruce St Leger changes to +9.9% and Geoff Taylor changes to -7.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bruce St Leger becomes +4.3% and for Geoff Taylor becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Bruce St Leger is +3.2% and for Geoff Taylor is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bruce St Leger: 71%, Geoff Taylor: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bruce St Leger: 64%, Geoff Taylor: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Geoff Taylor: 3,340, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Bruce St Leger: 3,083, level confidence: 64%.