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Michael Broadbent v Peter Learyjnr (Tue 21 May 2013)

Match won by Peter Learyjnr. Result: 9-15,15-10,5-15,9-15.

Starting level for Michael Broadbent: 1,274, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Learyjnr: 1,677, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Peter Learyjnr to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Michael Broadbent.

Peter Learyjnr won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Learyjnr played 32% better than Michael Broadbent in this match.

In this case, Peter Learyjnr played at level 1,675 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Michael Broadbent is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Learyjnr: 86%, Michael Broadbent: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Learyjnr: 86%, Michael Broadbent: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Broadbent: 1,272, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Peter Learyjnr: 1,674, level confidence: 86%.