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Brad Whitbread v John Kerley (Thu 18 Nov 2010)

Match won by John Kerley. Result: 15-6,9-15,4-15,14-16.

Starting level for Brad Whitbread: 1,320, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for John Kerley: 1,519, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
John Kerley to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Brad Whitbread.

John Kerley won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Kerley played 25% better than Brad Whitbread in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Kerley actually played at a level of 1,581 and Brad Whitbread at a level of 1,269. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Kerley changes to +2.8% and Brad Whitbread changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Kerley becomes +2.3% and for Brad Whitbread becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for John Kerley is +1.7% and for Brad Whitbread is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Kerley: 90%, Brad Whitbread: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Kerley: 86%, Brad Whitbread: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Brad Whitbread: 1,292, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for John Kerley: 1,543, level confidence: 86%.