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Peter Gunter v Steven Davies (Thu 18 Nov 2010)

Match won by Steven Davies. Result: 14-16,15-9,15-8,13-15,15-17.

Starting level for Peter Gunter: 3,488, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steven Davies: 3,647, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Steven Davies to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Peter Gunter.

Steven Davies won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Davies played 5% better than Peter Gunter in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steven Davies actually played at a level of 3,656 and Peter Gunter at a level of 3,480. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Davies changes to 0% and Peter Gunter changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Davies becomes +0.1% and for Peter Gunter becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Steven Davies is 0% and for Peter Gunter is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Davies: 87%, Peter Gunter: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Davies: 86%, Peter Gunter: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Gunter: 3,479, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Steven Davies: 3,645, level confidence: 86%.