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Ian Collin v Dan Collison (Thu 18 Nov 2010)

Match won by Ian Collin. Result: 15-3,15-10,15-7.

Starting level for Ian Collin: 1,947, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dan Collison: 1,181, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Ian Collin to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Dan Collison.

Ian Collin won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Collin played 125% better than Dan Collison in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Collin actually played at a level of 2,275 and Dan Collison at a level of 1,011. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Collin changes to +13% and Dan Collison changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Collin becomes +6% and for Dan Collison becomes -7.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Ian Collin is +4.5% and for Dan Collison is -5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Collin: 87%, Dan Collison: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Collin: 74%, Dan Collison: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Collin: 2,032, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Dan Collison: 1,123, level confidence: 74%.