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Andy Davis v Matt McGill (Wed 22 May 2013)

Match won by Matt McGill. Result: 9-15,4-15,6-15.

Starting level for Andy Davis: 936, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Matt McGill: 1,436, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Matt McGill to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Andy Davis.

Matt McGill won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 137% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt McGill played 137% better than Andy Davis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt McGill actually played at a level of 1,784 and Andy Davis at a level of 753. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt McGill changes to +15% and Andy Davis changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt McGill becomes +7.7% and for Andy Davis becomes -10.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Matt McGill is +5% and for Andy Davis is -6.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andy Davis is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt McGill: 92%, Andy Davis: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt McGill: 74%, Andy Davis: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Davis: 890, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Matt McGill: 1,506, level confidence: 74%.