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Nick Newson v Julian Craxton (Wed 22 May 2013)

Match won by Julian Craxton. Result: 7-15,7-15,9-15.

Starting level for Nick Newson: 1,192, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Julian Craxton: 1,417, level confidence: 44%.
Julian Craxton to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Nick Newson.

Julian Craxton won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Craxton played 96% better than Nick Newson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Craxton actually played at a level of 1,818 and Nick Newson at a level of 929. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Craxton changes to +26% and Nick Newson changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Craxton becomes +11.9% and for Nick Newson becomes -8.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Julian Craxton is +7.7% and for Nick Newson is -5.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nick Newson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Craxton: 67%, Nick Newson: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Craxton: 52%, Nick Newson: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Newson: 1,134, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Julian Craxton: 1,524, level confidence: 52%.