Neil Houson v Rob Carroll (Wed 22 May 2013)
Match won by Rob Carroll. Result: 11-15,12-15,15-10,12-15.
Starting level for
Neil Houson:
1,564, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Rob Carroll:
1,363, level confidence: 65%.
Neil Houson to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Rob Carroll.
Rob Carroll won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Carroll played
20% better than Neil Houson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Carroll actually played at a level of
1,600 and Neil Houson at a level of
1,333. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Carroll changes to +16% and Neil Houson changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Carroll becomes +8.2% and for Neil Houson becomes -7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Rob Carroll is +5.3% and for Neil Houson is -4.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Carroll: 81%, Neil Houson: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Carroll: 69%, Neil Houson: 73%.
A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Neil Houson:
1,528, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Rob Carroll:
1,434, level confidence: 69%.