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Chris Hunt v Jon Smith Squire (Wed 22 May 2013)

Match won by Jon Smith Squire. Result: 4-15,13-15,12-15.

Starting level for Chris Hunt: 1,130, level confidence: 31%.
Starting level for Jon Smith Squire: 1,539, level confidence: 60%.
Jon Smith Squire to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Chris Hunt.

Jon Smith Squire won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jon Smith Squire played 55% better than Chris Hunt in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jon Smith Squire actually played at a level of 1,642 and Chris Hunt at a level of 1,059. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 5.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jon Smith Squire changes to +3% and Chris Hunt changes to -5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jon Smith Squire becomes +2.5% and for Chris Hunt becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Jon Smith Squire is +1.6% and for Chris Hunt is -2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jon Smith Squire: 77%, Chris Hunt: 56%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jon Smith Squire: 73%, Chris Hunt: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hunt: 1,099, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Jon Smith Squire: 1,562, level confidence: 73%.