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Richard Carr v Gavin Noffki (Thu 18 Nov 2010)

Match won by Gavin Noffki. Result: 12-15,15-11,15-10,9-15,12-15.

Starting level for Richard Carr: 2,483, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Gavin Noffki: 1,419, level confidence: 51%.
Richard Carr to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Gavin Noffki.

Gavin Noffki won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gavin Noffki played 9% better than Richard Carr in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gavin Noffki actually played at a level of 1,957 and Richard Carr at a level of 1,800. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gavin Noffki changes to +28% and Richard Carr changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gavin Noffki becomes +12.6% and for Richard Carr becomes -7.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Gavin Noffki is +9.4% and for Richard Carr is -5.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Richard Carr is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gavin Noffki: 71%, Richard Carr: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gavin Noffki: 52%, Richard Carr: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Carr: 2,413, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Gavin Noffki: 1,550, level confidence: 52%.