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Alan Howell v Nev Rimes (Wed 22 May 2013)

Match won by Alan Howell. Result: 11-15,15-8,15-8,14-16,15-13.

Starting level for Alan Howell: 1,519, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nev Rimes: 1,497, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Alan Howell to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Nev Rimes.

Alan Howell won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Howell played 12% better than Nev Rimes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Howell actually played at a level of 1,593 and Nev Rimes at a level of 1,427. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Howell changes to +4.5% and Nev Rimes changes to -4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Howell becomes +3.2% and for Nev Rimes becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Alan Howell is +2.1% and for Nev Rimes is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Howell: 87%, Nev Rimes: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Howell: 83%, Nev Rimes: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Howell: 1,548, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Nev Rimes: 1,463, level confidence: 80%.