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Laura Seaman v Karen Robins (Mon 22 Nov 2010)

Match won by Karen Robins. Result: 10-15,10-15,6-15.

Starting level for Laura Seaman: 141, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Karen Robins: 140, level confidence: 54%.
Laura Seaman to win as she is currently playing 1% better than Karen Robins.

Karen Robins won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karen Robins played 73% better than Laura Seaman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karen Robins actually played at a level of 185 and Laura Seaman at a level of 107. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karen Robins changes to +32% and Laura Seaman changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karen Robins becomes +16.6% and for Laura Seaman becomes -15%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Karen Robins is +12% and for Laura Seaman is -10.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Karen Robins is limited to +10% and Laura Seaman is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karen Robins: 74%, Laura Seaman: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karen Robins: 56%, Laura Seaman: 59%.

Final level for Laura Seaman: 134, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Karen Robins: 154, level confidence: 56%.