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Alistair Coker v Peter Newman (Thu 23 May 2013)

Match won by Alistair Coker. Result: 11-0,12-10,11-3.

Starting level for Alistair Coker: 4,894, level confidence: 40%.
Starting level for Peter Newman: 2,353, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Alistair Coker to win as he is currently playing 108% better than Peter Newman.

Alistair Coker won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 162% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alistair Coker played 162% better than Peter Newman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alistair Coker actually played at a level of 5,488 and Peter Newman at a level of 2,098. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.3% and 8.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alistair Coker changes to +8.3% and Peter Newman changes to -3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alistair Coker becomes +3.3% and for Peter Newman becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Alistair Coker is +2.1% and for Peter Newman is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alistair Coker: 63%, Peter Newman: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alistair Coker: 56%, Peter Newman: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alistair Coker: 4,991, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Peter Newman: 2,313, level confidence: 82%.