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Jordan Ryan v Paul Crowson (Tue 23 Nov 2010)

Match won by Jordan Ryan. Result: 5-15,7-15,15-13,15-6,15-13.

Starting level for Jordan Ryan: 932, level confidence: 34%.
Starting level for Paul Crowson: 1,523, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Paul Crowson to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Jordan Ryan.

Jordan Ryan won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jordan Ryan played 5% better than Paul Crowson in this match.

Jordan Ryan has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 1198. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jordan Ryan actually played at a level of 1,387 and Paul Crowson at a level of 1,315. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jordan Ryan changes to +14% and Paul Crowson changes to -5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jordan Ryan becomes +7.7% and for Paul Crowson becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Jordan Ryan is +5.8% and for Paul Crowson is -2.6%.

Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Jordan Ryan is +36%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jordan Ryan: 59%, Paul Crowson: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jordan Ryan: 45%, Paul Crowson: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jordan Ryan: 1,266, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Paul Crowson: 1,490, level confidence: 70%.