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Mike Fagg v Adam Valko (Tue 23 Nov 2010)

Match won by Mike Fagg. Result: 15-10,15-12,15-11.

Starting level for Mike Fagg: 1,066, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Adam Valko: 872, level confidence: 26%.
Mike Fagg to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Adam Valko.

Mike Fagg won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Fagg played 43% better than Adam Valko in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Fagg actually played at a level of 1,151 and Adam Valko at a level of 808. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Fagg changes to +3.1% and Adam Valko changes to -7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Fagg becomes +3% and for Adam Valko becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Mike Fagg is +2.2% and for Adam Valko is -3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Fagg: 78%, Adam Valko: 51%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Fagg: 72%, Adam Valko: 47%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Fagg: 1,088, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Adam Valko: 839, level confidence: 47%.