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Karl Fenwick v Peter Iszatt (Wed 29 May 2013)

Match won by Peter Iszatt. Result: 13-15,8-15,15-12,5-15.

Starting level for Karl Fenwick: 1,332, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Peter Iszatt: 1,332, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Peter Iszatt to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Karl Fenwick.

Peter Iszatt won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Iszatt played 30% better than Karl Fenwick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Iszatt actually played at a level of 1,517 and Karl Fenwick at a level of 1,170. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Iszatt changes to +8.8% and Karl Fenwick changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Iszatt becomes +5.2% and for Karl Fenwick becomes -7.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Peter Iszatt is +3.4% and for Karl Fenwick is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Iszatt: 89%, Karl Fenwick: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Iszatt: 78%, Karl Fenwick: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karl Fenwick: 1,271, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Peter Iszatt: 1,375, level confidence: 78%.