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Carl Noffki v Simon Taylor (Tue 23 Nov 2010)

Match won by Simon Taylor. Result: 12-15,15-5,8-15,7-15.

Starting level for Carl Noffki: 1,053, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Simon Taylor: 965, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Carl Noffki to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Simon Taylor.

Simon Taylor won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Taylor played 23% better than Carl Noffki in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Taylor actually played at a level of 1,118 and Carl Noffki at a level of 909. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Taylor changes to +11% and Carl Noffki changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Taylor becomes +7% and for Carl Noffki becomes -8.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Simon Taylor is +5.3% and for Carl Noffki is -6.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Carl Noffki is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Taylor: 88%, Carl Noffki: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Taylor: 76%, Carl Noffki: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Carl Noffki: 1,019, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Simon Taylor: 1,014, level confidence: 76%.