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Nev Rimes v Simon Totten (Wed 29 May 2013)

Match won by Simon Totten. Result: 8-15,12-15,12-15.

Starting level for Nev Rimes: 1,463, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Totten: 1,601, level confidence: 66%.
Simon Totten to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Nev Rimes.

Simon Totten won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Totten played 45% better than Nev Rimes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Totten actually played at a level of 1,845 and Nev Rimes at a level of 1,269. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Totten changes to +15% and Nev Rimes changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Totten becomes +7.1% and for Nev Rimes becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Simon Totten is +4.6% and for Nev Rimes is -4.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Totten: 81%, Nev Rimes: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Totten: 71%, Nev Rimes: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nev Rimes: 1,403, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Simon Totten: 1,672, level confidence: 71%.