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Charles Yerrell v Jack Fowler (Tue 23 Nov 2010)

Match won by Charles Yerrell. Result: 15-13,9-15,11-15,17-15,15-11.

Starting level for Charles Yerrell: 2,069, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Jack Fowler: 2,216, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Jack Fowler to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Charles Yerrell.

Charles Yerrell won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charles Yerrell played 7% better than Jack Fowler in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charles Yerrell actually played at a level of 2,213 and Jack Fowler at a level of 2,072. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charles Yerrell changes to +6.7% and Jack Fowler changes to -4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charles Yerrell becomes +3.7% and for Jack Fowler becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Charles Yerrell is +2.7% and for Jack Fowler is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charles Yerrell: 73%, Jack Fowler: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charles Yerrell: 68%, Jack Fowler: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charles Yerrell: 2,123, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Jack Fowler: 2,168, level confidence: 83%.