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Phil Littlefair v Simon Farman (Tue 23 Nov 2010)

Match won by Phil Littlefair. Result: 14-16,15-5,15-6,15-12.

Starting level for Phil Littlefair: 1,480, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Farman: 727, level confidence: 29%.
Phil Littlefair to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Simon Farman.

Phil Littlefair won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 51% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Littlefair played 34% better than Simon Farman in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Phil Littlefair was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,086 and 1,480 without affecting his level.

As Phil Littlefair has played below his allowed range at 1,027, his level reduction is 5.7% before damping. On the assumption that Phil Littlefair would normally have been playing at level 1,290 (based on typical behaviour), Simon Farman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4% and 10.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair changes to -1.5% and Simon Farman changes to +10.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair becomes -1.3% and for Simon Farman becomes +6.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Phil Littlefair is -1% and for Simon Farman is +5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Littlefair: 86%, Simon Farman: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Littlefair: 70%, Simon Farman: 44%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Littlefair: 1,464, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Simon Farman: 762, level confidence: 44%.