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Phil Jenkins v Paul Green (Tue 04 Jun 2013)

Match won by Paul Green. Result: 15-12,12-15,17-15,10-15,10-15.

Starting level for Phil Jenkins: 1,691, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Paul Green: 2,359, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Paul Green to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Phil Jenkins.

Paul Green won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Green played 11% better than Phil Jenkins in this match.

As Paul Green has played below his allowed range at 2,016, his level reduction is 7.8% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Green would normally have been playing at level 2,278 (based on typical behaviour), Phil Jenkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.5% and 8.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Green changes to -5.8% and Phil Jenkins changes to +8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Green becomes -3.2% and for Phil Jenkins becomes +4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Paul Green is -2.1% and for Phil Jenkins is +3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Green: 87%, Phil Jenkins: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Green: 77%, Phil Jenkins: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Jenkins: 1,740, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Paul Green: 2,331, level confidence: 77%.