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Vince Payne v Paul Suckling (Wed 24 Nov 2010)

Match won by Paul Suckling. Result: 7-15,11-15,9-15.

Starting level for Vince Payne: 1,049, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Paul Suckling: 1,277, level confidence: 61%.
Paul Suckling to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Vince Payne.

Paul Suckling won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Suckling played 67% better than Vince Payne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Suckling actually played at a level of 1,494 and Vince Payne at a level of 897. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Suckling changes to +15% and Vince Payne changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Suckling becomes +8.1% and for Vince Payne becomes -8.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Paul Suckling is +6.1% and for Vince Payne is -6.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Vince Payne is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Suckling: 78%, Vince Payne: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Suckling: 67%, Vince Payne: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Vince Payne: 998, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Paul Suckling: 1,352, level confidence: 67%.