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Paul Nanon v Simon Gray (Wed 24 Nov 2010)

Match won by Paul Nanon. Result: 8-15,15-13,11-15,15-10,16-14.

Starting level for Paul Nanon: 1,821, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Gray: 2,042, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Simon Gray to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Paul Nanon.

Paul Nanon won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Nanon played 7% better than Simon Gray in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Nanon actually played at a level of 1,992 and Simon Gray at a level of 1,866. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Nanon changes to +8.6% and Simon Gray changes to -8.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Nanon becomes +4.5% and for Simon Gray becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Paul Nanon is +3.4% and for Simon Gray is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Nanon: 86%, Simon Gray: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Nanon: 79%, Simon Gray: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Nanon: 1,880, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Simon Gray: 1,973, level confidence: 77%.