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Martin White v Julian Craxton (Wed 24 Nov 2010)

Match won by Martin White. Result: 15-9,15-12,15-7.

Starting level for Martin White: 2,288, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Julian Craxton: 1,679, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Martin White to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Julian Craxton.

Martin White won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin White played 61% better than Julian Craxton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin White actually played at a level of 2,485 and Julian Craxton at a level of 1,546. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 7.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin White changes to +7.3% and Julian Craxton changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin White becomes +3.8% and for Julian Craxton becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Martin White is +2.8% and for Julian Craxton is -2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin White: 81%, Julian Craxton: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin White: 75%, Julian Craxton: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin White: 2,349, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Julian Craxton: 1,643, level confidence: 81%.