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Andrew James v Rich Anthony (Wed 24 Nov 2010)

Match won by Rich Anthony. Result: 15-10,15-13,8-15,8-15,12-15.

Starting level for Andrew James: 1,248, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rich Anthony: 1,101, level confidence: 53%.
Andrew James to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Rich Anthony.

Rich Anthony won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rich Anthony played 12% better than Andrew James in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rich Anthony actually played at a level of 1,239 and Andrew James at a level of 1,109. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rich Anthony changes to +12% and Andrew James changes to -8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rich Anthony becomes +7% and for Andrew James becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Rich Anthony is +5.2% and for Andrew James is -3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rich Anthony: 73%, Andrew James: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rich Anthony: 65%, Andrew James: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew James: 1,200, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Rich Anthony: 1,157, level confidence: 65%.