Robert Brooks v Stephen Lloyd (Tue 04 Jun 2013)
Match won by Stephen Lloyd. Result: 17-15,7-15,9-15,9-15.
Starting level for
Robert Brooks:
1,843, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Stephen Lloyd:
2,766, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Stephen Lloyd to win as he is currently playing
50% better than Robert Brooks.
Stephen Lloyd won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Lloyd played
31% better than Robert Brooks in this match.
As Stephen Lloyd has played below his allowed range at 2,437, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Stephen Lloyd would normally have been playing at level 2,632 (based on typical behaviour), Robert Brooks played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 3.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd changes to -0.8% and Robert Brooks changes to +3.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd becomes -0.6% and for Robert Brooks becomes +2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd is -0.4% and for Robert Brooks is +1.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Lloyd: 89%, Robert Brooks: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Lloyd: 83%, Robert Brooks: 83%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Robert Brooks:
1,871, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Stephen Lloyd:
2,752, level confidence: 83%.