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Mike Guest v Chris Wren (Wed 24 Nov 2010)

Match won by Mike Guest. Result: 15-9,15-17,15-12,15-8.

Starting level for Mike Guest: 1,309, level confidence: 20%.
Starting level for Chris Wren: 1,046, level confidence: 58%.
Mike Guest to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Chris Wren.

Mike Guest won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Guest played 27% better than Chris Wren in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Guest actually played at a level of 1,318 and Chris Wren at a level of 1,039. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Guest changes to +0.6% and Chris Wren changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Guest becomes +0.5% and for Chris Wren becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Mike Guest is +0.4% and for Chris Wren is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Guest: 45%, Chris Wren: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Guest: 45%, Chris Wren: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Guest: 1,312, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Chris Wren: 1,043, level confidence: 76%.