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Greg Stephens v Paul Hunt (Wed 24 Nov 2010)

Match won by Paul Hunt. Result: 4-15,15-13,15-17,5-15.

Starting level for Greg Stephens: 1,407, level confidence: 41%.
Starting level for Paul Hunt: 2,003, level confidence: 35%.
Paul Hunt to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Greg Stephens.

Paul Hunt won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Hunt played 35% better than Greg Stephens in this match.

In this case, Paul Hunt played at level 1,910 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Hunt would normally have been playing at level 1,927 (based on typical behaviour), Greg Stephens played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Hunt changes to 0% and Greg Stephens changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Hunt becomes 0% and for Greg Stephens becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Paul Hunt is 0% and for Greg Stephens is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Hunt: 59%, Greg Stephens: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Hunt: 58%, Greg Stephens: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Stephens: 1,411, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Paul Hunt: 2,000, level confidence: 58%.