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Ian Ford v Nigel Gazely (Wed 24 Nov 2010)

Match won by Ian Ford. Result: 5-15,15-6,15-10,15-7.

Starting level for Ian Ford: 1,379, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Nigel Gazely: 1,341, level confidence: 19%.
Ian Ford to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Nigel Gazely.

Ian Ford won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Ford played 27% better than Nigel Gazely in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Ford actually played at a level of 1,534 and Nigel Gazely at a level of 1,206. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Ford changes to +2.9% and Nigel Gazely changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Ford becomes +2.6% and for Nigel Gazely becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Ian Ford is +1.9% and for Nigel Gazely is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Ford: 84%, Nigel Gazely: 43%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Ford: 75%, Nigel Gazely: 39%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Ford: 1,404, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Nigel Gazely: 1,281, level confidence: 39%.