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Lawrence Foster v Craig Perry (Wed 24 Nov 2010)

Match won by Lawrence Foster. Result: 9-15,15-7,16-18,16-14,15-5.

Starting level for Lawrence Foster: 1,536, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Craig Perry: 1,197, level confidence: 43%.
Lawrence Foster to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Craig Perry.

Lawrence Foster won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lawrence Foster played 13% better than Craig Perry in this match.

As Lawrence Foster has played below his allowed range at 1,406, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that Lawrence Foster would normally have been playing at level 1,505 (based on typical behaviour), Craig Perry played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lawrence Foster changes to -2.2% and Craig Perry changes to +5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lawrence Foster becomes -1.8% and for Craig Perry becomes +3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Lawrence Foster is -1.4% and for Craig Perry is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lawrence Foster: 86%, Craig Perry: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lawrence Foster: 80%, Craig Perry: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lawrence Foster: 1,513, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Craig Perry: 1,228, level confidence: 61%.