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Michael Herd v Dave Rawlings (Tue 04 Jun 2013)

Match won by Michael Herd. Result: 10-15,15-8,16-14,15-9.

Starting level for Michael Herd: 2,569, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Rawlings: 1,964, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Michael Herd to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Dave Rawlings.

Michael Herd won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Herd played 24% better than Dave Rawlings in this match.

In this case, Michael Herd played at level 2,471 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Michael Herd would normally have been playing at level 2,509 (based on typical behaviour), Dave Rawlings played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Herd changes to 0% and Dave Rawlings changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Herd becomes 0% and for Dave Rawlings becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Michael Herd is 0% and for Dave Rawlings is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Herd: 89%, Dave Rawlings: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Herd: 87%, Dave Rawlings: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Herd: 2,565, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Dave Rawlings: 1,974, level confidence: 86%.