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Anthony Clifford v Paul Starkey (Wed 05 Jun 2013)

Match won by Anthony Clifford. Result: 16-18,15-11,15-5,10-15,15-11.

Starting level for Anthony Clifford: 1,233, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Starkey: 1,514, level confidence: 59%.
Paul Starkey to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Anthony Clifford.

Anthony Clifford won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Clifford played 12% better than Paul Starkey in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Clifford actually played at a level of 1,446 and Paul Starkey at a level of 1,291. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Clifford changes to +10.9% and Paul Starkey changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Clifford becomes +6.3% and for Paul Starkey becomes -7.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Anthony Clifford is +4.1% and for Paul Starkey is -4.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Clifford: 91%, Paul Starkey: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Clifford: 78%, Paul Starkey: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Clifford: 1,281, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Paul Starkey: 1,442, level confidence: 65%.