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Vinh Tram v Gareth Jones (Wed 05 Jun 2013)

Match won by Vinh Tram. Result: 15-12,17-15,4-15,11-15,15-11.

Starting level for Vinh Tram: 1,348, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Gareth Jones: 1,236, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Vinh Tram to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Gareth Jones.

Vinh Tram won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vinh Tram played 5% better than Gareth Jones in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vinh Tram actually played at a level of 1,325 and Gareth Jones at a level of 1,258. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vinh Tram changes to -1.7% and Gareth Jones changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vinh Tram becomes -1.5% and for Gareth Jones becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Vinh Tram is -1% and for Gareth Jones is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vinh Tram: 70%, Gareth Jones: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vinh Tram: 69%, Gareth Jones: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Vinh Tram: 1,333, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Gareth Jones: 1,242, level confidence: 87%.