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Chris Roper v Tony Stewart (Wed 05 Jun 2013)

Match won by Tony Stewart. Result: 14-16,15-5,17-19,15-13,12-15.

Starting level for Chris Roper: 1,276, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tony Stewart: 2,306, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Tony Stewart to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Chris Roper.

Tony Stewart won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tony Stewart played 6% better than Chris Roper in this match.

As Tony Stewart has played below his allowed range at 1,574, his level reduction is 17% before damping. On the assumption that Tony Stewart would normally have been playing at level 2,092 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Roper played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tony Stewart changes to -10.3% and Chris Roper changes to +18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tony Stewart becomes -4.8% and for Chris Roper becomes +9.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Tony Stewart is -3.1% and for Chris Roper is +5.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tony Stewart: 92%, Chris Roper: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tony Stewart: 71%, Chris Roper: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Roper: 1,349, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Tony Stewart: 2,233, level confidence: 71%.