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Nick Newson v John Chesters (Wed 05 Jun 2013)

Match won by John Chesters. Result: 16-14,9-15,7-15,15-10,11-15.

Starting level for Nick Newson: 1,134, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for John Chesters: 1,059, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Nick Newson to win as he is currently playing 7% better than John Chesters.

John Chesters won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Chesters played 12% better than Nick Newson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Chesters actually played at a level of 1,161 and Nick Newson at a level of 1,034. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Chesters changes to +6.8% and Nick Newson changes to -9.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Chesters becomes +4.7% and for Nick Newson becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for John Chesters is +3.1% and for Nick Newson is -3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Chesters: 90%, Nick Newson: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Chesters: 82%, Nick Newson: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Newson: 1,092, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for John Chesters: 1,090, level confidence: 82%.