Darren Matussa v Keith Farnham (Wed 05 Jun 2013)
Match won by Keith Farnham. Result: 11-15,13-15,8-15.
Starting level for
Darren Matussa:
1,591, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Keith Farnham:
2,191, level confidence: 60%.
Keith Farnham to win as he is currently playing
38% better than Darren Matussa.
Keith Farnham won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Farnham played
45% better than Darren Matussa in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Farnham actually played at a level of
2,251 and Darren Matussa at a level of
1,549. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 2.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Farnham changes to +2.3% and Darren Matussa changes to -1.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Farnham becomes +1.7% and for Darren Matussa becomes -1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Keith Farnham is +1.1% and for Darren Matussa is -0.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Farnham: 78%, Darren Matussa: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Farnham: 76%, Darren Matussa: 89%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Darren Matussa:
1,574, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Keith Farnham:
2,212, level confidence: 76%.