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Tim Oram v Brad Whitbread (Thu 25 Nov 2010)

Match won by Tim Oram. Result: 15-13,15-8,15-7.

Starting level for Tim Oram: 1,513, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Brad Whitbread: 1,292, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Tim Oram to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Brad Whitbread.

Tim Oram won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Oram played 61% better than Brad Whitbread in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Oram actually played at a level of 1,772 and Brad Whitbread at a level of 1,103. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Oram changes to +14% and Brad Whitbread changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Oram becomes +6.9% and for Brad Whitbread becomes -8.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Tim Oram is +5.2% and for Brad Whitbread is -6.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Brad Whitbread is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Oram: 91%, Brad Whitbread: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Oram: 78%, Brad Whitbread: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Oram: 1,589, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Brad Whitbread: 1,229, level confidence: 72%.